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Wake up, Westminster: after May, every devolved parliament in the UK will likely be for independence
Thursday, 22 January 2026 11:54![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png){kind=small}
guardianworldnews_feedWith Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Sinn Féin leading polls in their respective nations, can the United Kingdom continue in this – or any – form?
If you were the leader of a democracy, you would hope that the people you govern would, at the very least, want the state itself to exist. It shouldn’t be too much to ask. And yet, if the polls are to be believed, the United Kingdom is in a very interesting position. By the end of May, it is likely that the largest party in three of the four constituent countries of the UK will want the larger polity in which they operate to break apart.
The SNP is currently the overwhelming favourite to have the most seats in the Scottish parliament in the upcoming elections. In Wales, there was polling last week suggesting that the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru was on course to be the largest party inside the Welsh Senedd, just four seats short of a majority. Even more astonishing is that the Welsh Green party was also predicted to get 11 of the 96 seats. This would mean that there would be a majority of parties inside the Welsh parliament whose official policy was for Welsh independence. In Northern Ireland, the party with the most seats at present is Sinn Féin.
Will Hayward is a Guardian columnist. He publishes a regular newsletter on Welsh politics
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